※ 本文為 Knuckles 轉寄自 ptt.cc 更新時間: 2020-04-22 02:32:43
看板 Stock
作者 標題 [其他] 美股大家開始激進的無腦空
時間 Tue Apr 21 23:30:15 2020
原文如下 出自4/20 華爾街日報 ，本人不負責任翻譯
在最後心得部份
網址：
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/marke...n-years/ar-BB12RYPy?li=BBnbfcN
Bets Against the Stock Market Rise to Highest Level in Years
Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years. ...
Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years. ...
Bets Against the Stock Market Rise to Highest Level in Years
Karen Langley 1 day ago
Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years.
Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago.
Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at lower prices and keep the difference as profit. Among the individual companies they have targeted in recent weeks are travel-related firms, including Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., Marriott International Inc. and Wynn Resorts Ltd.
Those bets come during a wild year for investors who are struggling to reconcile the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the population and economy. The S&P 500 suffered its fastest drop from a record to a bear market in history—ultimately falling 34% between Feb. 19 and March 23. Its 28% rebound since then has also been brisk, leaving some investors anxious about the strength of the rally when so much remains unknown.
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“We’ve really seen a significant bounceback in the last three weeks at levels that I think are too quick,” said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust. His firm recently bet against the Nasdaq-100, on the belief that technology stocks have fallen too little to reflect the probability of a recession. The index is up 1.1% in 2020.
“When we see a strong move in one direction, where we think the fundamentals and the news can turn ugly, especially during an earnings cycle, we think that’s an opportunity where we could see a 5,10% selloff again,” he said.
Investors are bracing for the possibility of more volatility this week, as earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola Co., Netflix Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. give another glimpse at how the coronavirus is reshaping the landscape for U.S. business.
The outsize market swings of late require vigilance from investors who sell shares short because they can face losses when prices rise. Short sellers incurred total mark-to-market losses of $108.8 billion over three days in late March when the S&P 500 surged 18%, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners.
But with the potential for additional declines ahead, many investors have decided that the ability to hedge their portfolios—or simply bet on a selloff—is wise.
“Things will go back to normal eventually and these positions will decrease but not until we start seeing less volatility in the market,” Mr. Dusaniwsky said of the rise in short positions against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust. “No one’s going to give up their insurance until they see the chances of catastrophe are in the rearview mirror.”
The portion of available shares sold short against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust has also risen, climbing to 27% in early April, the highest level since November 2016 and up from 14% at the beginning of 2020.
The increase in bets against the market coincides with a push in other countries to temporarily curb short selling. At times of heightened volatility, critics often argue that the practice exacerbates downward pressure on stock prices. But Jay Clayton, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has argued short selling is needed to facilitate ordinary market trading.
To be sure, coronavirus has upended entire industries in recent weeks, leaving investors scrambling to reassess the growth prospects of companies from Marriott to Clorox Co. to Amazon.com Inc. to Carnival.
With the pandemic devastating global travel, hotel, casino and cruise stocks have been among the hardest hit—and seen some of the biggest additions to the short positions against them.
Many hotels and casinos temporarily closed their doors when demand evaporated, furloughing employees and curbing spending plans, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has extended a no-sail order for cruises into July.
Short sellers have added a collective $797 million to their short positions against Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Marriott and Wynn over the past 30 days, according to data Friday from S3 Partners.
Alex Lee, a San Francisco resident who manages a family sandwich shop in Oakland, Calif., and his wife had previously dabbled in short selling but have recently devoted more attention there. They made bets against Marriott, along with other stocks.
“Because of Marriott’s price at the time, it seemed like it had more room to fall and because of its heavy presence in Europe and the United States, we just thought that that company itself would be more vulnerable to falling more,” he said.
Over two rounds of shorting Marriott stock in March and April, they made a profit of about $15,000, Mr. Lee said. Marriott recently said about 25% of its hotels are temporarily closed and North American occupancy levels are around 10%. Its shares are down 44% this year.
Among the stocks that saw big drops in short positioning in March were stodgy consumer-staples shares, which got a bounce as Americans stocked their pantries to wait out the pandemic at home.
“We had a lifetime of trading in the month of March,” said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Funds. He said he had previously bet against shares of Kroger Co., Walmart Inc., Clorox and Campbell Soup Co. but covered those positions in late February and early March as it became clear those companies would perform well with consumers sheltering in place.
“Their business is healthier than it was before the crisis because the demand for their products has increased,” he said. “The amount of times you clean high-touch surfaces with a chemical disinfectant is going to go up for some period of time, maybe for the rest of our lives.”
個人心得（不負責任爛翻譯）
最近幾週，美國股市玩家決定激進的開始無腦空。理由很簡單 美股反彈的實在太快又太猛 他們覺得完全沒有道理
標普500指數的最大型ETF--「SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust」(代號SPY.US）上週作空部位達681億美元，創2016年1月以來新高。
冠狀病毒已經在最近幾周顛覆了整個行業，使投資者爭先恐後地重新評估了從萬豪到Clorox Co.到Amazon.com Inc.到Carnival的公司的成長前景。
因為沒人可以出門 酒店，賭場和遊輪股票受到的打擊最大，而且大家空這些股票空的最猛
根據S3 Partners週五的數據，在過去30天中，空空對嘉年華，皇家加勒比海，萬豪和永利的作空金額總計增加了7.97億美元。
最後還訪問了一個美國散戶（開三明治店的） 他講了一堆 結論就是 美股空下去就對了
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推 : 米國空軍對幹Fed1F 04/21 23:31
推 : 美國散戶都能在美國開三明治店..我好廢-.-2F 04/21 23:32
推 : 這些人不久前不是才被特斯拉尬爆？3F 04/21 23:32
推 : 按照嘎偉的邏輯 可以多了4F 04/21 23:32
推 : 主力的態度比較重要吧，問什麼早餐店的5F 04/21 23:32
推 : 原來失業救濟金都拿去買空單了6F 04/21 23:33
推 : 紓困的錢拿來空股市？7F 04/21 23:33
→ : 謝謝川普8F 04/21 23:33
推 : 川普無限QE給人空自己，這怎麼反應9F 04/21 23:33
推 : 90%以上都被嘎飛了吧10F 04/21 23:33
噓 : 關我啥事？11F 04/21 23:34
→ : 4不4快要出現史詩級嘎空了？12F 04/21 23:34
推 : 小心被失業數據嘎飛天13F 04/21 23:34
推 : FED買垃圾債 公司倒閉的話.....就要看誰尬誰了14F 04/21 23:34
推 : 連早餐店都在空就知道要開始作多了15F 04/21 23:35
推 : 有趣XD16F 04/21 23:35
推 : 怕爆17F 04/21 23:35
推 : 封城太無聊逆18F 04/21 23:35
推 : 正常狀況應該會跌 但是被印鈔機干預19F 04/21 23:35
推 : 空軍集結20F 04/21 23:35
→ : 原本是10元買一個麵包 現在是100元買一個麵包21F 04/21 23:35
→ : 放空就是發大財 舒服 明天還要繼續空 繼續賺22F 04/21 23:35
推 : 川普: QE爆買美股到大漲，打爆你們空軍23F 04/21 23:35
推 : 嘻嘻24F 04/21 23:36
→ : 股市也是同理25F 04/21 23:36
→ : 管它實際狀況如何 股票是有人買它就會漲26F 04/21 23:36
推 : 米國空軍27F 04/21 23:36
→ : 之前死掉是雜空 現在出動的都是正牌空軍你要尊重28F 04/21 23:36
→ : 可是都知道不好，散戶空，誰在接？29F 04/21 23:39
→ : 川普：我知道該怎麼做了30F 04/21 23:39
推 : 美國空軍果然就是強31F 04/21 23:39
→ : 寫什麼無腦，美國大媽八成能賺32F 04/21 23:40
推 : = = 美國大媽有病 他們空的那些都在地板了33F 04/21 23:40
→ : 所有人都做空，政府要選票反而要助空嗎?34F 04/21 23:40
→ : 感謝分享，這樣感覺應該要把郵輪股全部抄底，尬爆35F 04/21 23:40
→ : 傻空進場36F 04/21 23:41
→ : 照理性而論，之前回補的才是正牌空軍吧，最先跑
→ : 照理性而論，之前回補的才是正牌空軍吧，最先跑
推 : 早跟你說美國空軍沒有台股空軍好說話38F 04/21 23:42
推 : 哈哈哈，散戶都空這就沒事啦39F 04/21 23:43
推 : 全世界阿散都一樣40F 04/21 23:46
推 : 還蠻屌的41F 04/21 23:50
推 : 都無限QE了 是還能怎麼印鈔?42F 04/21 23:52
→ : 聯準會QE買股票?
→ : 聯準會QE買股票?
推 : 想當初我也是這樣笑抄底的台灣大媽...44F 04/21 23:54
推 : 給我錢 我在家放空45F 04/22 00:02
推 : 菁英與企業，美國遠比台灣強，平民與大媽，台灣比美46F 04/22 00:07
→ : 國強
→ : 國強
推 : 企業拋售賣給國家 可以變國營 ? 先拿現金再說 XDDD48F 04/22 00:16
推 : 靠背 還以為美國散戶都在家做多結果是放空啊49F 04/22 00:39
推 : 防空飛彈準備好了50F 04/22 01:01
→ : 難怪之前美股這麼強51F 04/22 01:20
→ : 三明治店的散戶...這算小老闆吧52F 04/22 01:21
→ : 跟著市場走，加入大空軍53F 04/22 01:49
推 : 正規空軍出動了 還以為是雜空啊 傻多54F 04/22 02:20
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